Gunners gunned down and Athletico Madrid wins too

Both sides had missed first-half penalties, with Mesut Ozil missing from the spot
for the Gunners and David Alaba failing to
convert for Bayern, though Arsenal had
goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny sent off for the
foul that conceded the Germans' penalty. Kroos nevertheless struck in the 54th minute to give
the defending champions an away goal, before
Thomas Muller netted late (88`) on to hand them a
precious 2-0 lead ahead of the second leg in
Germany. In the parallel match Milan looked on course for a
well-deserved draw after having the better chances
in the match, however Diego Costa struck his fifth
goal in four Champions League games in the 83rd
minute to win the round-of-16 first-leg clash.

Your gut says home win. The Poisson model says something else. Who's right? → drux.space/apps/betting