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Why Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar’s 2027 chances are slim
« on: June 11, 2025, 01:00:25 PM »
Why Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar’s 2027 chances are slim

BY CHIONYE HENCS ODIAKA

As Nigeria approaches another
general election cycle in 2027, the nation’s political terrain is once again
heating up. With opposition figures reportedly forming coalitions to unseat the
incumbent government, names like Peter Obi and former Vice President Atiku
Abubakar are being floated as potential flagbearers.

Some political analysts argue
that Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, remains the
only realistic challenger capable of defeating the incumbent. While such claims
held more weight prior to the last election, the current political realities
particularly the informal, but deeply entrenched principle of power rotation
tell a different story.

The Zoning Tradition and Why
It Matters

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Though Nigeria is governed by a
democratic constitution, its political stability rests in part on an unwritten
but widely respected understanding: the presidency should rotate between the
north and the south. This power-sharing principle, often referred to as
“zoning,” is not enshrined in law but has evolved as a crucial mechanism to
foster national unity, prevent domination by any single region, and guarantee
inclusiveness in governance.

In 2023, the All Progressives
Congress (APC) honoured this principle by zoning its presidential ticket to the
south following eight consecutive years of northern leadership. That decision
led to the emergence of a southern president and was broadly accepted as
necessary to maintain the country’s fragile federal balance.

Fast-forward to 2027: the sitting
president, still in his first term, will not have completed the customary
eight-year cycle. It is both politically sensitive and strategically wise to
allow him the opportunity to finish what has become the standard two-term
expectation. The idea of replacing him with another southern candidate, or
worse, with a northern one, would upset the carefully maintained regional
equilibrium.

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The Precedent of Yar’Adua and
Jonathan

To understand the implications of
disrupting this balance, one need only revisit the political controversy
following President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s death in 2010. Yar’Adua, a
northerner, had served just three years in office when his southern deputy,
Goodluck Jonathan, assumed the presidency and later contested in 2011.

Many in the north felt the region
had been short-changed, and the resulting tensions contributed to widespread
dissatisfaction and accusations of political injustice. Even though Jonathan
was later defeated by Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, the disruption of the power
rotation contributed significantly to a sense of northern political alienation.
Had Jonathan served a full eight years in addition to Yar’Adua’s remaining
term, the repercussions could have been far worse.

Atiku’s Contradiction

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Former Vice President Atiku
Abubakar’s rumoured interest in the 2027 race raises a similar dilemma. If
Atiku respects the zoning convention, one he himself invoked in 2011 when he
opposed Jonathan’s candidacy, then it would be inconsistent for him to now seek
the presidency before the south completes its cycle.

Attempting to reassert northern
leadership in 2027 would not only be seen as a political overreach, but would
also likely fracture any potential coalition seeking national support. Southern
leaders and voters are unlikely to back such a move, making Atiku’s path to the
presidency even narrower.

The Peter Obi Factor

Peter Obi’s rising profile cannot
be denied. His 2023 performance energised a large, youth-driven base and
brought fresh perspectives to national discourse. However, his southern origin
poses a challenge in 2027 if the incumbent president is still seeking
re-election.

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To nominate another southern
candidate, especially one who may seek an additional eight years, would violate
the unwritten rotation principle and risk political upheaval. It could alienate
northern stakeholders who perceive such a move as monopolising power in the
south, thereby deepening the country’s regional fault lines.

Why Strategic Defections
Matter

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The recent defection of several
southern governors and high-profile politicians from the Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP) to the APC is telling. While some may view these defections as
opportunistic, they may also reflect a calculated political strategy: ensuring
that the south retains the presidency for the full eight-year cycle.

These moves are not merely about
access to federal power; they may also serve to reinforce the power rotation
principle by rallying support behind the current administration regardless of
its performance, to prevent a premature return of power to the north.

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Leadership vs Timing

This debate is not fundamentally
about whether Peter Obi or Atiku Abubakar is a competent leader. It is about
timing, political context, and the overarching need to maintain Nigeria’s
fragile political equilibrium. Competence matters, but so does honouring the
informal agreements that have kept the nation’s diverse regions politically
engaged and relatively peaceful.

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To abandon this arrangement, even
for a charismatic or reform-minded candidate, could unleash political tensions
that the country is not prepared to handle.

The Bigger Picture

In the long run, Nigeria must
strive for a political culture where leadership is determined by merit, vision,
and competence, not ethnicity or regional origin. But until such a culture is
institutionalized, the zoning formula remains an essential pillar of national
stability.

The 2027 election is not merely
about electing a leader. It is a test of Nigeria’s political maturity and its
commitment to equity, fairness, and unity. Breaking the rotation arrangement
could do more harm than good, regardless of the candidate’s appeal.

Chionye Hencs Odiaka is a
humanitarian and emergency management professional with a deep interest in
Nigerian politics, governance, and national stability. He writes from a public
policy and development perspective. He can be contacted via hencschionye@gmail.com



Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of NigerianEye

Source: Why Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar’s 2027 chances are slim

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