Buhari is gone — who inherits his 12m loyalists?

Buhari is gone — who inherits his 12m loyalists?

 BY OLU ALLEN

In the wake of Muhammadu Buhari’s death, Nigeria is not just witnessing
the passing of a former president. It is watching the quiet disbanding — or
perhaps the reshaping — of a formidable political cult: a loyal bloc of over 12
million Nigerians who saw Buhari not just as a politician, but as a moral
archetype, a messianic figure.

For two election cycles, this
support base held firm. Rain or shine, economic hardship or national
insecurity, they voted. They defended. They believed. Buhari’s image — austere,
disciplined, religiously grounded — resonated deeply across the northern
heartland. To many, he was not just Mai Gaskiya (“the honest one”), he was Baba
— a man of sacrifice, a mirror of their suffering, and a custodian of their
hopes.

Now, the question is simple but
profound: Who inherits this loyalty?

To assume these 12 million
Nigerians will simply shift allegiance to the ruling APC, or blindly follow the
next northern candidate, is to underestimate the depth of Buhari’s emotional
and symbolic appeal. His popularity was never just about the party. It was
about persona. No other northern politician in recent history has been able to
command such adulation — not Atiku, not Kwankwaso, not any current governor.

This vacuum matters.

Nigeria’s politics, especially
since 1999, has often revolved around “structures.” But Buhari’s base was more
than structure. It was sentiment, memory, and identity. It fused his military
past, his perceived frugality, and his religious credibility into a potent
myth. Even when his governance faltered, the myth endured. People queued for
hours to vote for that myth.

So, who now steps into that space?

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, despite his
current hold on Aso Rock, does not carry the emotional weight Buhari did in the
north. His political strength lies elsewhere — in machinery, not mythology.
Atiku Abubakar, for all his years of ambition, has failed repeatedly to
consolidate mass trust across the north in the way Buhari did. Kwankwaso has a
movement — the Kwankwasiyya — but it remains regional, more cult of Kano than
cult of the north.

Could Peter Obi, the surprise
force of 2023, make inroads here? Possibly. His anti-corruption rhetoric,
emphasis on prudence, and outsider status echo early Buhari narratives. But the
question remains whether Obi can culturally and emotionally connect with
Buhari’s base — a base that often equates political trust with shared geography,
religion, and symbolism. A few viral videos in the Arewa dialect may not be
enough.

In truth, Buhari’s death may mark
the beginning of a political dispersal rather than a handover. His loyalists
could splinter — some into apathy, some into new alliances, and others into
nostalgia-fueled conservatism waiting for the next “pure” leader to emerge.

This fragmentation could reshape
the politics of 2027. Without Buhari as a unifying symbol, northern votes may
no longer be delivered en bloc. Power brokers who once relied on Buhari’s image
may now find the terrain less predictable.

For Nigeria, this offers both
risk and opportunity.

Risk, because power vacuums often
invite manipulation, division, and opportunism. But opportunity, too — to build
a new politics not around cults of personality, but around ideas, policies, and
accountability.

Still, one must not dismiss the
weight of emotional politics in Nigeria. Buhari’s myth may outlive his
presidency and his person. Like Awolowo in the southwest or Zik in the east,
Buhari’s legacy in the north could remain a reference point for decades. The
challenge for any successor is not just to fill his shoes, but to command that
same trust.

For now, his 12 million loyalists
stand politically orphaned. Whether they find a new home or become the swing
force that defines the next election remains one of the most important
questions in Nigerian politics today.

Olu Allen is a writer and educator who resides in Kano.
He contributes commentary on politics, society, and culture in Nigeria.

 

Source: Buhari is gone — who inherits his 12m loyalists?

 - NigerianEye
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