Champions League Round of 16: England vs Germany really?

Draw facts

• Bayern's last encounter with Liverpool was the 2001 UEFA Super Cup in Monaco, the English club beating the European champions 3-2.
  Jürgen Klopp has faced Bayern more than any other team in his managerial career (29 matches): W9 D4 L16.
  Spurs beat Dortmund home (3-1) and away (2-1) in last season's group stage.
  Real Madrid have won their last six games against Ajax, scoring 20 goals in that time and conceding just two.
  Barcelona are unbeaten in six previous meetings with Lyon, winning four and drawing two.
  Atlético are unbeaten in their last nine matches against Italian clubs (W7 D2).
  Porto overcame Roma 4-1 on aggregate in last season's play-offs.

How the draw worked
Two seeding pots were formed: one consisting of group winners and the other of runners-up. No team could play a club from their group or any side from their own association.

Road to the final
12/13 & 19/20 February: round of 16 first leg
5/6/ & 12/13 March: round of 16 second leg
15 March: quarter-final and semi-final draws
9/10 April: Quarter-finals, first leg
16/17 April: Quarter-finals, second leg
30 April/1 May: Semi-finals, first leg
7/8 May: Semi-finals, second leg
1 June: Final – Estadio Metropolitano, Madrid

Your gut says home win. The Poisson model says something else. Who's right? → drux.space/apps/betting